EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•ARRANGEMENT OF TRANSPORTATION OF FREIGHT & CARGO
Market Cap $19.6B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$147.30
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +40.6%YTD -3.0%7D +3.0%
Options Vol
399
30D
Implied Move
±9.7%
IV Rank
11%
EXPD Options Overview
bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.7
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.64x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 51% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.14x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 36.4% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 75.9% (ATM 36.4% + spread 19.8% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 28.83% (spread 19.75% + slippage 9.08%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 11.99 (vega 23.681 / spread 19.75%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.0
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -44%, Raw: -37%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -44% (strong bearish) — Raw: -37%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 61.9% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +79.9%, OI skew +61.9% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 23%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +0%, ATM: -36%, OTM: -38% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 8% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.2
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.0x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.3% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.9% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 60% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 32% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 64% — urgent
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -44 (bearish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
2.8
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks0/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 19.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 7,495 — thin
Active Volume
≥500Volume 399/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.99 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 53% — neutral vs sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 45.4 contracts (bid:29.9 ask:15.5) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 9.08% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +13.9% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 51% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 4.6pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 410.42 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 18d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -44% @ 72% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 62 (ITM 20% + inst 32%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.2
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.2
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.7
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.7
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.