IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 3.2% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.48x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 28% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.08x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 22.6% — normal range
Effective IV 51.9% (ATM 22.6% + spread 14.7% + bias) — good value
Total drag 19.27% (spread 14.67% + slippage 4.60%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 5.46 (vega 8.003 / spread 14.67%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -49% (strong bearish) — Raw: -47%
|OI skew| 18.7% — call-heavy
Vol skew +48.0%, OI skew +18.7% — aligned
0-DTE 33%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -73%, ATM: +14%, OTM: -25% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 31% — bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.4% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.3% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 16% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 38% — institutional presence
Aggressive execution 17% — patient
Conviction -49 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 14.7% — wide
OI 73,300 — deep
Volume 1,004/day — adequate
$0.73 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 34% — tighter than sector
Depth 285.9 contracts (bid:186.5 ask:99.4) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.60% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +8.1% — backwardation
IV percentile 3% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 1.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 610.94 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 11d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -49% @ 75% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 68 (ITM 20% + inst 38%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.