IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 0.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.21x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 1% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.86x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 10.0% — normal range
Effective IV 41.1% (ATM 10.0% + spread 15.6% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 19.83% (spread 15.57% + slippage 4.26%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 15.57%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +26% (bullish) — Raw: +16%
|OI skew| 91.1% — put-heavy
Vol skew -89.9%, OI skew -91.1% — aligned
0-DTE 2%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -100%, ATM: +20%, OTM: +100% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 99% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.1x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +4.1% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 25% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 18% — patient
Conviction +26 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 15.6% — wide
OI 6,834 — thin
Volume 79/day — thin
$0.78 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 18% — much tighter than sector
Depth 34.7 contracts (bid:11.5 ask:23.2) — thin
Avg slippage 4.26% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -13.6% — contango
IV percentile 1% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -0.6pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +26% @ 63% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.