IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 13.8% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.26x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 8% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.94x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 26.9% — normal range
Effective IV 50.7% (ATM 26.9% + spread 11.9% + bias) — good value
Total drag 19.53% (spread 11.90% + slippage 7.63%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 72.91 (vega 86.762 / spread 11.90%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -38% (strong bearish) — Raw: -31%
|OI skew| 22.2% — call-heavy
Vol skew +46.5%, OI skew +22.2% — aligned
0-DTE 33%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -26%, ATM: +11%, OTM: -50% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 27% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 3.1% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +3.2% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 45% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 25% — mixed
Aggressive execution 41% — patient
Conviction -38 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 11.9% — wide
OI 30,012 — adequate
Volume 945/day — adequate
$0.60 to cross — expensive
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 12% — much tighter than sector
Depth 26.5 contracts (bid:12.2 ask:14.3) — thin
Avg slippage 7.63% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -6.3% — contango
IV percentile 14% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -3.3pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1029.21 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 12d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -38% @ 69% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 55 (ITM 20% + inst 25%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.