IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 10.0% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.21x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 4% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.21x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 26.0% — normal range
Effective IV 35.6% (ATM 26.0% + spread 4.8% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 12.76% (spread 4.81% + slippage 7.95%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 858.56 (vega 412.968 / spread 4.81%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -40% (strong bearish) — Raw: -38%
|OI skew| 57.2% — call-heavy
Vol skew +64.8%, OI skew +57.2% — aligned
0-DTE 47%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -24%, ATM: -18%, OTM: -80% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 17% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.3% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 8% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 44% — patient
Conviction -40 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 4.8% — acceptable
OI 20,305 — adequate
Volume 176/day — thin
$0.24 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 8% — much tighter than sector
Depth 22.3 contracts (bid:15.3 ask:7.0) — thin
Avg slippage 7.95% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +20.7% — backwardation
IV percentile 10% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 4.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 2044.40 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 20d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -40% @ 70% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.