IV is low with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 0.3% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.67x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 0% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.95x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 5.0% — normal range
Effective IV 34.8% (ATM 5.0% + spread 14.9% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 31.83% (spread 14.89% + slippage 16.94%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 14.89%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +82% (strong bullish) — Raw: +81%
|OI skew| 73.0% — put-heavy
Vol skew -72.2%, OI skew -73.0% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +100%, ATM: +80%, OTM: +100% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 96% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 4.0x avg — hot
Vol/OI 29.0% — high turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +24.7% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 99% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 50% — institutional presence
Aggressive execution 98% — highly urgent
Conviction +82 (bullish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 14.9% — wide
OI 40,454 — adequate
Volume 11,750/day — active
$0.74 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 60% — wider than sector
Depth 170.7 contracts (bid:71.7 ask:99.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 16.94% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +95.0% — backwardation
IV percentile 0% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 3.5pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
4 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 30d (low risk); CPI in 3d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +82% @ 91% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Score 80 (ITM 20% + inst 50%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.