Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 57.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.39x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 80% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.07x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 38.0% — normal range
Effective IV 112.8% (ATM 38.0% + spread 37.4% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 43.04% (spread 37.39% + slippage 5.65%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.10 (vega 4.116 / spread 37.39%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -42% (strong bearish) — Raw: -51%
|OI skew| 2.8% — balanced
Vol skew +19.0%, OI skew -2.8% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 24%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -100%, ATM: -46%, OTM: -47% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 53% — neutral vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.2x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 3% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 17% — patient
Conviction -42 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 37.4% — wide
OI 17,213 — adequate
Volume 126/day — thin
$1.87 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 84% — much wider than sector
Depth 568.6 contracts (bid:329.8 ask:238.8) — deep
Avg slippage 5.65% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +6.5% — backwardation
IV percentile 57% — neutral
IV kink -1.6pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 571.72 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 19d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -42% @ 71% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.