IV is low with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 1.1% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.48x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 2% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.98x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 10.6% — normal range
Effective IV 53.1% (ATM 10.6% + spread 21.3% + bias) — good value
Total drag 28.65% (spread 21.27% + slippage 7.38%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 21.27%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -45% (strong bearish) — Raw: -42%
|OI skew| 65.6% — put-heavy
Vol skew -2.8%, OI skew -65.6% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 3%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +7%, ATM: -54%, OTM: +4% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 87% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 4.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.1% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 57% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 95% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 70% — urgent
Conviction -45 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 21.3% — wide
OI 10,098,331 — deep
Volume 421,861/day — active
$1.06 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 18% — much tighter than sector
Depth 277.9 contracts (bid:121.4 ask:156.5) — adequate
Avg slippage 7.38% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -2.4% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 1% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 2.6pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -45% @ 72% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 125 (ITM 20% + inst 95%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.