IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 15.1% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.39x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 23% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.01x — flat
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 25.6% — normal range
Effective IV 114.6% (ATM 25.6% + spread 44.5% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 53.55% (spread 44.50% + slippage 9.05%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 0.26 (vega 1.178 / spread 44.50%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +7% (neutral) — Raw: +17%
|OI skew| 72.0% — put-heavy
Vol skew -56.9%, OI skew -72.0% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: +0%, OTM: +19% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 95% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.1x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.6% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -0.2% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 13% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 20% — patient
Conviction +7 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 44.5% — wide
OI 43,248 — adequate
Volume 246/day — thin
$2.23 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 36% — tighter than sector
Depth 217.8 contracts (bid:106.5 ask:111.3) — adequate
Avg slippage 9.05% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +0.5% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 15% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 0.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 3.98 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +7% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.