IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 0.8% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.12x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 1% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.05x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 8.9% — normal range
Effective IV 47.3% (ATM 8.9% + spread 19.2% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 31.27% (spread 19.20% + slippage 12.07%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 17.30 (vega 33.210 / spread 19.20%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -62% (strong bearish) — Raw: -44%
|OI skew| 35.6% — put-heavy
Vol skew -1.1%, OI skew -35.6% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 52%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -20%, ATM: -34%, OTM: -100% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 86% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.3% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +6.9% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 28% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 66% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 58% — patient
Conviction -62 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 19.2% — wide
OI 1,781,438 — deep
Volume 23,924/day — active
$0.96 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 18% — much tighter than sector
Depth 141.9 contracts (bid:58.0 ask:83.9) — adequate
Avg slippage 12.07% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +5.2% — backwardation
IV percentile 1% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 2.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 3133.00 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -62% @ 81% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 96 (ITM 20% + inst 66%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.