IV is low with bearish flow. No clear edge detected.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 18.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.76x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 40% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.07x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 28.3% — normal range
Effective IV 100.0% (ATM 28.3% + spread 35.9% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 46.87% (spread 35.85% + slippage 11.02%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 0.61 (vega 2.177 / spread 35.85%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -60% (strong bearish) — Raw: -52%
|OI skew| 20.0% — put-heavy
Vol skew -89.2%, OI skew -20.0% — aligned
0-DTE 12%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +25%, ATM: -68%, OTM: -52% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 97% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.6x avg — elevated
Vol/OI 4.8% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +0.2% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 84% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 36% — patient
Conviction -60 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 35.9% — wide
OI 5,737 — thin
Volume 277/day — thin
$1.79 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Depth 41.2 contracts (bid:28.0 ask:13.2) — thin
Avg slippage 11.02% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +7.0% — backwardation
IV percentile 19% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 2.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 4.03 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 12d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -60% @ 80% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.