Options/MCO

MCOMoody's Corporation

Options Analysis Report•SERVICES-CONSUMER CREDIT REPORTING, COLLECTION AGENCIES

Market Cap $89.2B|NYSE

● 2026-08-28$514.95

BEARISH

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y +3.3%YTD +3.2%7D +0.7%

Options Vol

239

30D

Implied Move

±6.7%

IV Rank

13%

MCO Options Overview

IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn

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MCO Gamma Walls

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MCO Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where MCO sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the fair band (4.84) — the move being priced is 1.59x this name's own median 21-trading-day move, and downside puts carry 1.9 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 21-trading-day realized moves (483 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (4.14): it is trading 3% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

4.84/ 10fair

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

4.14/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.8

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 26.5% — cheap vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.36x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 52% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.86x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 26.0% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 83.3% (ATM 26.0% + spread 28.6% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 42.11% (spread 28.64% + slippage 13.47%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 25.07 (vega 71.796 / spread 28.64%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

3.7

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -4%, Raw: -22%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -4% (neutral) — Raw: -22%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 3.7% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -64.0%, OI skew -3.7% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -100%, ATM: -85%, OTM: -12% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 91% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.2

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.3x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.0% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -40.1% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 46% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 4% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -4 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.6

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 28.6% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 12,103 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 239/day — thin

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$1.43 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 52% — neutral vs sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 17.9 contracts (bid:8.2 ask:9.7) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 13.47% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.5

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -14.1% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 26% — buyer opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.0pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 320.52 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -4% @ 52% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.0

bullishIV cheap, bearish flow

Long Puts6.6

bearishIV cheap, bearish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put3.7

bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow

Covered Call4.7

bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on MCO

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