IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 19.5% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.12x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 34% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.14x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 28.4% — normal range
Effective IV 60.8% (ATM 28.4% + spread 16.2% + bias) — good value
Total drag 21.20% (spread 16.22% + slippage 4.98%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 17.70 (vega 28.703 / spread 16.22%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -34% (strong bearish) — Raw: -27%
|OI skew| 23.2% — put-heavy
Vol skew +7.3%, OI skew -23.2% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 16%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +31%, ATM: -51%, OTM: -21% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 55% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.8% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 7% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 30% — patient
Conviction -34 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 16.2% — wide
OI 123,606 — deep
Volume 820/day — adequate
$0.81 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 37% — tighter than sector
Depth 143.8 contracts (bid:69.3 ask:74.5) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.98% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +14.2% — backwardation
IV percentile 20% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 4.4pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 2064.94 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 19d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -34% @ 67% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.