MOSThe Mosaic Company
Options Analysis Report•AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
Market Cap $7.8B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$24.57
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y -9.7%YTD -1.8%7D -0.8%
Options Vol
28,621
30D
Implied Move
±14.9%
IV Rank
60%
MOS Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 85.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.86x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 75% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.98x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 52.6% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 87.6% (ATM 52.6% + spread 17.5% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 21.00% (spread 17.49% + slippage 3.51%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 1.13 (vega 1.974 / spread 17.49%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -17%, Raw: -12%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -17% (bearish) — Raw: -12%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 40.6% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +18.3%, OI skew +40.6% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 10%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -21%, ATM: +22%, OTM: -24% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 55% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.1x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.7% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 70% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 36% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 30% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -17 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 17.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 482,309 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 28,621/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.87 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 75% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 879.2 contracts (bid:524.9 ask:354.3) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 3.51% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.5
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -2.2% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 85% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -2.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 59.65 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 18d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -17% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 66 (ITM 20% + inst 36%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.0
bullishIV expensive, mixed flow
Long Puts4.6
bearishIV expensive, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.7
bullishIV rich premium, mixed flow
Covered Call5.3
bearishIV rich premium, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.