MPCMARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Options Analysis Report•PETROLEUM REFINING
Market Cap $62.9B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$213.69
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +68.6%YTD +29.4%7D -4.0%
Options Vol
2,538
30D
Implied Move
±11.2%
IV Rank
66%
MPC Options Overview
bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.4
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 53.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.01x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 59% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.06x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 37.3% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 57.0% (ATM 37.3% + spread 9.8% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 15.64% (spread 9.83% + slippage 5.81%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 78.12 (vega 76.790 / spread 9.83%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
7.2
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +19%, Raw: +17%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +19% (bullish) — Raw: +17%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 23.6% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +53.0%, OI skew +23.6% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 26%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +17%, ATM: +22%, OTM: +15% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 4% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.3% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.7% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 43% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 18% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 46% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +19 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 9.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 76,815 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 2,538/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.49 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 61% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 99.0 contracts (bid:57.7 ask:41.3) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.81% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.1
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +5.9% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 54% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 2.4pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1281.97 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 18d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +19% @ 59% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 48 (ITM 20% + inst 18%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.0
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.5
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.7
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.2
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.