MRNAModerna, Inc. Common Stock
Options Analysis Report•BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
Market Cap $21.3B|NASDAQ
● 2026-04-17$53.72
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +113.8%YTD +74.1%7D +5.4%
Options Vol
28,107
30D
Implied Move
±24.0%
IV Rank
47%
MRNA Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
2.8
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 98.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.60x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 98% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.94x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 76.3% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 98.4% (ATM 76.3% + spread 11.1% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 17.11% (spread 11.05% + slippage 6.06%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 16.06 (vega 17.751 / spread 11.05%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.5
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +11%, Raw: +11%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +11% (bullish) — Raw: +11%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 1.1% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +34.9%, OI skew +1.1% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 75%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +25%, ATM: +36%, OTM: -11% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 34% — bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.7
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.7x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.5% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +3.4% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 59% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 28% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 43% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +11 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.4
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.1% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 814,552 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 28,107/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.55 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 98% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 180.2 contracts (bid:91.9 ask:88.3) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.06% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -6.1% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 98% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -5.7pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 682.72 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 20d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +11% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 58 (ITM 20% + inst 28%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV expensive, bullish flow
Long Puts4.1
bearishIV expensive, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.5
bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow
Covered Call5.4
bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.