IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 16.3% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.30x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 2% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.21x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 27.7% — normal range
Effective IV 66.1% (ATM 27.7% + spread 19.2% + bias) — fair
Total drag 25.08% (spread 19.18% + slippage 5.90%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 37.60 (vega 72.115 / spread 19.18%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -19% (bearish) — Raw: -14%
|OI skew| 9.2% — balanced
Vol skew -48.4%, OI skew +9.2% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 27%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -83%, ATM: +53%, OTM: -35% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 95% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 3.0x avg — hot
Vol/OI 15.2% — high turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +10.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 84% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 17% — patient
Conviction -19 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 19.2% — wide
OI 9,206 — thin
Volume 1,404/day — adequate
$0.96 to cross — expensive
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 5% — much tighter than sector
Depth 35.6 contracts (bid:17.0 ask:18.6) — thin
Avg slippage 5.90% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +20.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 16% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 5.1pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 415.41 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 20d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -19% @ 60% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.