MTGMGIC Investment Corp.
Options Analysis Report•SURETY INSURANCE
Market Cap $6.0B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$27.97
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +19.5%YTD -4.0%7D +2.8%
Options Vol
32
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
42%
MTG Options Overview
bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.7
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.00x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.00x — normal
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 0.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 67.1% (ATM 0.0% + spread 33.5% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 45.63% (spread 33.53% + slippage 12.10%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 33.53%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
8.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +86%, Raw: +81%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +86% (strong bullish) — Raw: +81%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 93.2% — put-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +93.8%, OI skew -93.2% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +0%, ATM: +0%, OTM: +81% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 2% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.4
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.1x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 0.4% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +1.3% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 9% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 40% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +86 (bullish) — strong conviction
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 33.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 8,494 — thin
Active Volume
≥500Volume 32/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.68 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 75.4 contracts (bid:15.4 ask:60.0) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 12.10% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +0.0% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 50% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.0pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +86% @ 92% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.4
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts3.8
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.8
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call3.3
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.