NSCNorfolk Southern Corp.
Options Analysis Report•RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING
Market Cap $67.9B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$302.38
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +38.1%YTD +5.1%7D +2.1%
Options Vol
197
30D
Implied Move
±7.0%
IV Rank
25%
NSC Options Overview
IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
7.3
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 8.7% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.69x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 3% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.00x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 25.3% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 69.2% (ATM 25.3% + spread 21.9% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 29.79% (spread 21.93% + slippage 7.86%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 56.26 (vega 123.378 / spread 21.93%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.7
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -25%, Raw: -14%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -25% (bearish) — Raw: -14%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 17.9% — put-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +80.7%, OI skew -17.9% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 35%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -100%, ATM: +44%, OTM: -56% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 7% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.6x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 1.1% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +8.7% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 12% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 25% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -25 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.1
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 21.9% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 17,991 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 197/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.10 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 7% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 21.9 contracts (bid:10.2 ask:11.7) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.86% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +0.4% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 9% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 2570.37 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: Earnings in 7d (elevated risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -25% @ 62% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.2
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.8
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.0
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.2
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.