PGRProgressive Corporation
Options Analysis Report•FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
Market Cap $118.4B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$202.58
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y -21.3%YTD -4.5%7D +4.4%
Options Vol
2,295
30D
Implied Move
±7.4%
IV Rank
19%
PGR Options Overview
IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
Loading score history...
Value
Is IV priced right?
8.2
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 16.6% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.09x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 25% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.96x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 27.7% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 54.0% (ATM 27.7% + spread 13.2% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 20.54% (spread 13.17% + slippage 7.37%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 20.38 (vega 26.839 / spread 13.17%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.7
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +28%, Raw: +30%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +28% (bullish) — Raw: +30%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 14.5% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -10.2%, OI skew +14.5% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 31%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -52%, ATM: -9%, OTM: +52% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 78% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.2x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +12.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 62% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 10% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 42% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +28 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 13.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 44,387 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 2,295/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.66 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 28% — tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 57.900000000000006 contracts (bid:30.3 ask:27.6) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.37% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -3.9% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 17% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -0.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 272.20 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +28% @ 64% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 40 (ITM 20% + inst 10%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.5
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts6.0
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.4
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call3.9
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.