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PGRProgressive Corporation

Options Analysis Report•FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
Market Cap $127.1B|NYSE
● 2026-08-31$218.64
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -11.1%YTD +3.1%7D -2.4%
1,264
30D
±6.4%
0%

PGR Options Overview

IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.7VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn
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PGR Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

8.8
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 18.5% — cheap vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.87x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 29% — below sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.80x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 23.4% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 55.5% (ATM 23.4% + spread 16.1% + bias) — good value

<3.0%

Total drag 24.87% (spread 16.05% + slippage 8.82%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 12.12 (vega 19.455 / spread 16.05%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.4
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -50%, Raw: -44%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -50% (strong bearish) — Raw: -44%

≥15%

|OI skew| 1.7% — balanced

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +65.8%, OI skew +1.7% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +37%, ATM: -66%, OTM: -35% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 9% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.0
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.7x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.3% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +9.1% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 49% — neutral vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 10% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 52% — patient

≥30

Conviction -50 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.5
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 16.1% — wide

≥10,000

OI 55,796 — deep

≥500

Volume 1,264/day — adequate

≤$0.50

$0.80 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 30% — tighter than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 39.3 contracts (bid:23.8 ask:15.5) — thin

<1.0%

Avg slippage 8.82% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.7
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -19.6% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 18% — buyer opportunity

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.4pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 143.79 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -50% @ 75% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

≥40 composite score

Score 40 (ITM 20% + inst 10%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls6.3
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts6.7
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put3.7
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.2
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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