PKGPackaging Corp of America
Options Analysis Report•PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES
Market Cap $19.0B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$213.39
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +17.2%YTD +1.1%7D +3.4%
Options Vol
185
30D
Implied Move
±10.1%
IV Rank
15%
PKG Options Overview
Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.3
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 63.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.42x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 53% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.09x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 39.6% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 62.4% (ATM 39.6% + spread 11.4% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 17.39% (spread 11.38% + slippage 6.01%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 30.22 (vega 34.392 / spread 11.38%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: -3%, Raw: -2%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -3% (neutral) — Raw: -2%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 1.8% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +12.4%, OI skew +1.8% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 9%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +0%, ATM: +2%, OTM: -9% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.2
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.9x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +8.1% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 50% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 76% — urgent
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -3 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks0/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 3,528 — thin
Active Volume
≥500Volume 185/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.57 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 54% — neutral vs sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 28.2 contracts (bid:9.8 ask:18.4) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.01% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
5.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +8.9% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 64% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 2.4pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 341.19 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: Earnings in 5d (elevated risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -3% @ 52% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.8
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.8
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.5
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.