PMPhilip Morris International Inc.
Options Analysis Report•CIGARETTES
Market Cap $245.9B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$157.79
BEARISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y -2.7%YTD -1.6%7D -1.7%
Options Vol
7,560
30D
Implied Move
±10.7%
IV Rank
54%
PM Options Overview
bearish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 43.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.32x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 67% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.63x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 34.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 51.1% (ATM 34.0% + spread 8.6% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 13.86% (spread 8.55% + slippage 5.31%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 54.65 (vega 46.725 / spread 8.55%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
3.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Weak signal (Conviction: -18%, Raw: -20%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -18% (bearish) — Raw: -20%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 1.0% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -42.2%, OI skew +1.0% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 50%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -4%, ATM: -13%, OTM: -35% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 89% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
5.0
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.4% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.1% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 66% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 32% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 51% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -18 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 8.6% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 140,604 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 7,560/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.43 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 69% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 170.7 contracts (bid:83.5 ask:87.2) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.31% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +63.3% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 44% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 16.9pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1207.36 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: Earnings in 5d (elevated risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -18% @ 59% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 62 (ITM 20% + inst 32%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.2
bullishIV fair, bearish flow
Long Puts5.4
bearishIV fair, bearish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.8
bullishIV fair, bearish flow
Covered Call6.0
bearishIV fair, bearish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.