IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 83.9% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.99x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 84% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.30x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 50.5% — normal range
Effective IV 79.5% (ATM 50.5% + spread 14.5% + bias) — fair
Total drag 18.06% (spread 14.52% + slippage 3.54%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 43.78 (vega 63.568 / spread 14.52%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -89% (strong bearish) — Raw: -87%
|OI skew| 6.4% — balanced
Vol skew -72.2%, OI skew +6.4% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 76%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -100%, ATM: -65%, OTM: -34% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 95% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 6.9x avg — hot
Vol/OI 12.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.7% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 97% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 74% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 18% — patient
Conviction -89 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 14.5% — wide
OI 6,176 — thin
Volume 783/day — adequate
$0.73 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 85% — much wider than sector
Depth 46.9 contracts (bid:15.7 ask:31.2) — thin
Avg slippage 3.54% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +29.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 84% — seller opportunity
IV kink 12.8pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 938.96 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 19d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -89% @ 94% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 104 (ITM 20% + inst 74%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.