IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 3.2% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.47x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 28% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.06x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 22.6% — normal range
Effective IV 71.8% (ATM 22.6% + spread 24.6% + bias) — fair
Total drag 28.83% (spread 24.61% + slippage 4.22%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.76 (vega 4.325 / spread 24.61%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -16% (bearish) — Raw: -1%
|OI skew| 25.1% — call-heavy
Vol skew +76.0%, OI skew +25.1% — aligned
0-DTE 40%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +100%, ATM: -11%, OTM: +21% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 3% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.4% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 6% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 23% — patient
Conviction -16 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 24.6% — wide
OI 69,592 — deep
Volume 657/day — adequate
$1.23 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 34% — tighter than sector
Depth 394.3 contracts (bid:212.5 ask:181.8) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.22% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +5.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 3% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 1.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 260.52 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 12d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -16% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.