Options/RCL

RCLRoyal Caribbean Group

Options Analysis Report•WATER TRANSPORTATION

Market Cap $76.2B|NYSE

● 2026-08-28$284.80

BEARISH

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y -22.2%YTD +0.5%7D -2.5%

Options Vol

2,670

30D

Implied Move

±10.2%

IV Rank

RCL Options Overview

IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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RCL Gamma Walls

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RCL Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where RCL sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.38) — near-dated vol is priced 10% below far-dated, and implied vol sits in the 4th percentile of its own past year, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (5.05): it is trading 6% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is contracting.

Protection cost

2.38/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

5.05/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.3

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 75.2% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.58x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 75% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.90x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 39.4% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 58.2% (ATM 39.4% + spread 9.4% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 16.24% (spread 9.41% + slippage 6.83%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 23.37 (vega 21.992 / spread 9.41%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.3

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +24%, Raw: +22%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +24% (bullish) — Raw: +22%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 36.3% — put-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -49.7%, OI skew -36.3% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 16%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +62%, ATM: +9%, OTM: +18% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 94% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.9

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.9x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.6% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -3.5% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 22% — below sector avg

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 32% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +24 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.9

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 9.4% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 100,776 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 2,670/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.47 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 76% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 59.400000000000006 contracts (bid:31.8 ask:27.6) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.83% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.8

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -10.0% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 75% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -1.3pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 81.15 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +24% @ 62% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.0

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.4

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.7

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call5.1

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.