RSGRepublic Services Inc.
Options Analysis Report•REFUSE SYSTEMS
Market Cap $64.2B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$207.66
BEARISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y -12.9%YTD -1.2%7D -3.3%
Options Vol
767
30D
Implied Move
±6.6%
IV Rank
19%
RSG Options Overview
IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
7.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 4.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.38x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 1% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.17x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 23.5% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 59.7% (ATM 23.5% + spread 18.1% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 20.84% (spread 18.08% + slippage 2.76%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 13.02 (vega 23.543 / spread 18.08%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
2.8
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -46%, Raw: -33%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -46% (strong bearish) — Raw: -33%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 33.3% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -86.4%, OI skew +33.3% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 2%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -25%, ATM: -67%, OTM: -4% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 96% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.5x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 10.5% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +11.1% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 87% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 28% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 7% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -46 (bearish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 18.1% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 7,306 — thin
Active Volume
≥500Volume 767/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.90 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 5% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 49.8 contracts (bid:26.2 ask:23.6) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 2.76% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +16.7% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 5% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 3.4pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 219.82 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 20d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -46% @ 73% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 58 (ITM 20% + inst 28%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV cheap, bearish flow
Long Puts7.3
bearishIV cheap, bearish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put3.7
bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow
Covered Call5.3
bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.