IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 17.0% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.25x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 11% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.31x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 27.8% — normal range
Effective IV 64.5% (ATM 27.8% + spread 18.4% + bias) — good value
Total drag 25.20% (spread 18.36% + slippage 6.84%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 22.46 (vega 41.241 / spread 18.36%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -15% (bearish) — Raw: -22%
|OI skew| 61.4% — call-heavy
Vol skew -55.1%, OI skew +61.4% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 22%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: -33%, OTM: -20% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 92% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -6.8% (5d) — unwinding
Sector activity percentile 17% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 41% — patient
Conviction -15 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 18.4% — wide
OI 2,967 — thin
Volume 49/day — thin
$0.92 to cross — expensive
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 15% — much tighter than sector
Depth 14.5 contracts (bid:9.4 ask:5.1) — thin
Avg slippage 6.84% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +31.2% — backwardation
IV percentile 17% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 6.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 181.12 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: Earnings in 6d (elevated risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -15% @ 57% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.