SWSmurfit Westrock plc
Options Analysis Report•PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES
Market Cap $22.1B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$42.24
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +3.6%YTD +6.7%7D +0.4%
Options Vol
130
30D
Implied Move
±14.6%
IV Rank
25%
SW Options Overview
bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.7
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.18x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.00x — normal
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 0.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 45.7% (ATM 0.0% + spread 22.8% + bias) — excellent value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 37.70% (spread 22.84% + slippage 14.86%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 22.84%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
7.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +44%, Raw: +27%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +44% (strong bullish) — Raw: +27%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 58.4% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +20.0%, OI skew +58.4% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 9%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +100%, ATM: +100%, OTM: +26% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 40% — bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.6
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.2x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 0.8% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +61.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 4% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 67% — urgent
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +44 (bullish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 22.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 17,232 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 130/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.14 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 74.7 contracts (bid:58.6 ask:16.1) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 14.86% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +18.3% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 50% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 6.9pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)acceptable: Earnings in 13d
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +44% @ 72% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.1
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.4
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.6
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call3.9
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.