bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 42.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.27x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 61% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.08x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 33.8% — normal range
Effective IV 60.8% (ATM 33.8% + spread 13.5% + bias) — good value
Total drag 18.97% (spread 13.51% + slippage 5.46%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 11.14 (vega 15.057 / spread 13.51%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -8% (neutral) — Raw: -3%
|OI skew| 3.1% — balanced
Vol skew -47.7%, OI skew -3.1% — aligned
0-DTE 20%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -71%, ATM: +47%, OTM: -24% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 97% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.2x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.4% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -0.5% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 11% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 23% — patient
Conviction -8 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 13.5% — wide
OI 31,279 — adequate
Volume 436/day — thin
$0.68 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 63% — wider than sector
Depth 199.4 contracts (bid:104.7 ask:94.7) — adequate
Avg slippage 5.46% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +8.1% — backwardation
IV percentile 42% — neutral
IV kink 3.5pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1461.81 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 13d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.