TPLTexas Pacific Land Corporation
Options Analysis Report•OIL ROYALTY TRADERS
Market Cap $29.1B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$422.58
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +1.5%YTD +41.8%7D +3.1%
Options Vol
1,074
30D
Implied Move
±14.4%
IV Rank
30%
TPL Options Overview
IV is elevated. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.5
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 83.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.61x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 91% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.06x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 49.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 79.6% (ATM 49.8% + spread 14.9% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 23.47% (spread 14.91% + slippage 8.56%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 55.89 (vega 83.334 / spread 14.91%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +27%, Raw: +29%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +27% (bullish) — Raw: +29%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 33.2% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -34.5%, OI skew +33.2% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 62%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +56%, ATM: -14%, OTM: +9% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 91% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.6% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +5.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 21% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 27% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +27 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
2.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 14.9% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 29,609 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 1,074/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.75 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 91% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 30.1 contracts (bid:14.5 ask:15.6) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 8.56% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
8.1
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +5.7% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 83% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 3.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 367.11 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 19d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +27% @ 64% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 51 (ITM 20% + inst 21%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.4
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.2
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.0
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.7
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.