Options/UAL

UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

Options Analysis Report•AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED

Market Cap $35.9B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-31$110.60

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +5.7%YTD -2.1%7D -2.6%

Options Vol

14,736

30D

Implied Move

±11.4%

IV Rank

UAL Options Overview

IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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UAL Gamma Walls

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UAL Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where UAL sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (1.43) — downside puts carry 0.1 IV points LESS than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 17% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (5.35): it is trading 2% below its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

1.43/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

5.35/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.6

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 81.7% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.95x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 92% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.83x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 39.8% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 60.6% (ATM 39.8% + spread 10.4% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 16.05% (spread 10.40% + slippage 5.65%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 1.89 (vega 1.961 / spread 10.40%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

3.2

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -9%, Raw: -8%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -9% (neutral) — Raw: -8%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 12.4% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -25.3%, OI skew -12.4% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -4%, ATM: +15%, OTM: -12% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 85% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.9

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.1x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 4.8% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +3.5% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 71% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 19% — mixed

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 17% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -9 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 10.4% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 309,709 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 14,736/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.52 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 92% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 217.3 contracts (bid:102.0 ask:115.3) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 5.65% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.2

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -17.0% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 82% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -4.8pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 3.93 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -9% @ 54% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 49 (ITM 20% + inst 19%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls4.8

bullishIV fair, bearish flow

Long Puts6.1

bearishIV fair, bearish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.4

bullishIV fair, bearish flow

Covered Call5.6

bearishIV fair, bearish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on UAL

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