Options/UNP

UNPUnion Pacific Corp.

Options Analysis Report•RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING

Market Cap $182.6B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$307.41

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +38.5%YTD +32.6%7D -0.8%

Options Vol

20,764

30D

Implied Move

±6.0%

IV Rank

UNP Options Overview

IV is low with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn

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UNP Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

7.8

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 15.9% — cheap vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.59x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 12% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.91x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 23.0% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 37.8% (ATM 23.0% + spread 7.4% + bias) — excellent value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 11.31% (spread 7.39% + slippage 3.92%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 30.44 (vega 22.496 / spread 7.39%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.0

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -14%, Raw: -15%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -14% (bearish) — Raw: -15%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 40.6% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +89.6%, OI skew +40.6% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -15%, ATM: -6%, OTM: -12% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 5% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

6.9

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks5/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 3.8x avg — hot

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 18.1% — high turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +9.5% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 99% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 79% — heavy institutional

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 24% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -14 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

5.2

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks5/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 7.4% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 114,444 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 20,764/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.37 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 15% — much tighter than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 125.8 contracts (bid:63.8 ask:62.0) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 3.92% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.0

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -8.9% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 16% — buyer opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -0.6pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 170.81 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -14% @ 57% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 109 (ITM 20% + inst 79%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls7.2

bullishIV cheap, bullish flow

Long Puts6.0

bearishIV cheap, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.8

bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow

Covered Call4.1

bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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