UNPUnion Pacific Corp.
Options Analysis Report•RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING
Market Cap $149.1B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$251.14
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +16.2%YTD +8.3%7D +0.3%
Options Vol
7,682
30D
Implied Move
±8.3%
IV Rank
26%
UNP Options Overview
IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
6.4
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 16.8% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 2.19x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 10% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.46x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 27.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 49.4% (ATM 27.8% + spread 10.8% + bias) — excellent value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 17.17% (spread 10.79% + slippage 6.38%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 53.72 (vega 57.962 / spread 10.79%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.9
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -45%, Raw: -43%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -45% (strong bearish) — Raw: -43%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 26.0% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +74.3%, OI skew +26.0% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 65%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +0%, ATM: -50%, OTM: -21% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 9% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.0
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.7x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 7.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +9.3% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 75% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 49% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 40% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -45 (bearish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 10.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 106,220 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 7,682/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.54 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 13% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 159.6 contracts (bid:73.8 ask:85.8) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.38% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
8.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +45.7% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 17% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 10.1pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 894.48 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: Earnings in 6d (elevated risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -45% @ 73% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 79 (ITM 20% + inst 49%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.9
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.9
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.0
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call5.0
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.