VLOValero Energy Corporation
Options Analysis Report•PETROLEUM REFINING
Market Cap $66.9B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$223.65
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +105.5%YTD +35.3%7D -6.4%
Options Vol
7,770
30D
Implied Move
±12.2%
IV Rank
53%
VLO Options Overview
Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 68.6% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 77% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.99x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 41.1% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 60.1% (ATM 41.1% + spread 9.5% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 14.24% (spread 9.48% + slippage 4.76%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 125.44 (vega 118.916 / spread 9.48%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -21%, Raw: -10%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -21% (bearish) — Raw: -10%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 0.4% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +28.8%, OI skew +0.4% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 21%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +32%, ATM: +12%, OTM: -18% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 30% — bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.0x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 6.0% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +9.6% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 78% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 49% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 41% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -21 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 9.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 128,654 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 7,770/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.47 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 78% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 89.1 contracts (bid:46.2 ask:42.9) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.76% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -0.8% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 69% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -1.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 2811.26 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)acceptable: Earnings in 13d
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -21% @ 61% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 79 (ITM 20% + inst 49%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.2
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.0
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.2
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.1
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.