IV is low with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 4.5% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 0.95x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 7% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.83x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 18.6% — normal range
Effective IV 38.5% (ATM 18.6% + spread 9.9% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 12.72% (spread 9.94% + slippage 2.78%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 88.21 (vega 87.677 / spread 9.94%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -12% (bearish) — Raw: -30%
|OI skew| 21.9% — call-heavy
Vol skew -15.6%, OI skew +21.9% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 11%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +84%, ATM: +26%, OTM: -50% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 89% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.9x avg — elevated
Vol/OI 15.0% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +16.5% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 88% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 13% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 17% — patient
Conviction -12 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 9.9% — wide
OI 48,152 — adequate
Volume 7,216/day — active
$0.50 to cross — cheap
2 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 23% — tighter than sector
Depth 219.2 contracts (bid:115.4 ask:103.8) — adequate
Avg slippage 2.78% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -16.9% — contango
IV percentile 4% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -2.0pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1324.42 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -12% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Score 43 (ITM 20% + inst 13%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.