IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 10.2% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.39x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 28% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.09x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 26.1% — normal range
Effective IV 84.3% (ATM 26.1% + spread 29.1% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 36.26% (spread 29.10% + slippage 7.16%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 6.76 (vega 19.665 / spread 29.10%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -24% (bearish) — Raw: -27%
|OI skew| 59.8% — call-heavy
Vol skew +55.7%, OI skew +59.8% — aligned
0-DTE 3%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +100%, ATM: +61%, OTM: -57% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 27% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.1% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +7.0% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 13% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 50% — patient
Conviction -24 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 29.1% — wide
OI 12,197 — adequate
Volume 131/day — thin
$1.46 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 42% — neutral vs sector
Depth 90.5 contracts (bid:53.0 ask:37.5) — thin
Avg slippage 7.16% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +9.0% — backwardation
IV percentile 10% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 2.3pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 940.93 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 10d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -24% @ 62% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.