IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 9.5% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.03x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 15% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.83x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 22.7% — normal range
Effective IV 97.0% (ATM 22.7% + spread 37.2% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 50.92% (spread 37.17% + slippage 13.75%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 7.95 (vega 29.544 / spread 37.17%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -100% (strong bearish) — Raw: -100%
|OI skew| 48.6% — call-heavy
Vol skew -66.7%, OI skew +48.6% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 33%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: -100%, OTM: -100% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 96% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.1% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +5.7% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 38% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 50% — patient
Conviction -100 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 37.2% — wide
OI 580 — thin
Volume 12/day — thin
$1.86 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 29% — tighter than sector
Depth 86.8 contracts (bid:84.8 ask:2.0) — thin
Avg slippage 13.75% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -17.2% — contango
IV percentile 10% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -3.0pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1893.87 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -100% @ 100% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.