IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 12.3% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 2.98x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 0% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.87x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 26.6% — normal range
Effective IV 54.5% (ATM 26.6% + spread 14.0% + bias) — good value
Total drag 28.39% (spread 13.97% + slippage 14.42%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 5.72 (vega 7.989 / spread 13.97%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -47% (strong bearish) — Raw: -32%
|OI skew| 36.6% — put-heavy
Vol skew +38.0%, OI skew -36.6% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 12%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +17%, ATM: -70%, OTM: -6% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 62% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.6x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.0% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.4% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 12% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 56% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 50% — patient
Conviction -47 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 14.0% — wide
OI 1,785,122 — deep
Volume 18,272/day — active
$0.70 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 12% — much tighter than sector
Depth 356.9 contracts (bid:194.6 ask:162.3) — adequate
Avg slippage 14.42% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -12.9% — contango
IV percentile 12% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -5.6pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1664.44 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 20d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -47% @ 74% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 86 (ITM 20% + inst 56%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.