bearish flow with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 67.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.36x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 66% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.21x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 55.6% — normal range
Effective IV 79.6% (ATM 55.6% + spread 12.0% + bias) — fair
Total drag 18.57% (spread 11.98% + slippage 6.59%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 22.47 (vega 26.920 / spread 11.98%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -21% (bearish) — Raw: -24%
|OI skew| 4.8% — balanced
Vol skew -13.2%, OI skew +4.8% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 14%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +40%, ATM: -55%, OTM: -34% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 82% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.9x avg — normal
Vol/OI 5.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +4.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 76% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 21% — mixed
Aggressive execution 37% — patient
Conviction -21 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 12.0% — wide
OI 94,681 — deep
Volume 4,966/day — adequate
$0.60 to cross — expensive
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 83% — much wider than sector
Depth 284.4 contracts (bid:162.4 ask:122.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 6.59% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +21.4% — backwardation
IV percentile 68% — neutral
IV kink 10.8pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 2281.35 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -21% @ 60% consistency — unclear
Score 51 (ITM 20% + inst 21%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.