Options/XLP

XLPState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF

Options Analysis Report

AUM $14.4B|ARCX

● 2026-04-17$82.46

VERY BEARISH

Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data

1Y +1.7%YTD +6.1%7D +0.1%

Options Vol

115,034

30D

Implied Move

±7.3%

IV Rank

50%

XLP Options Overview

IV is low with bearish flow and unusual activity. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

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Value

Is IV priced right?

5.5

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 22.3% — cheap vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 2.11x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 33% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.83x — backwardation

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 28.9% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 58.6% (ATM 28.9% + spread 14.8% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 18.70% (spread 14.84% + slippage 3.86%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 17.86 (vega 26.509 / spread 14.84%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.1

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +16%, Raw: -0%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +16% (bullish) — Raw: -0%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 74.8% — put-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -95.6%, OI skew -74.8% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 5%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -97%, ATM: +3%, OTM: +0% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 100% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

5.8

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/9 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 2.6x avg — hot

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 12.4% — normal turnover

Strike Concentration

≥60%

Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -1.6% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 85% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 91% — heavy institutional

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 13% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +16 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.6

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 14.8% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 926,967 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 115,034/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.74 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 44% — neutral vs sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 616.4 contracts (bid:266.9 ask:349.5) — deep

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 3.86% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.6

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +82.6% — backwardation

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 22% — buyer opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 9.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 2209.09 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +16% @ 58% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 121 (ITM 20% + inst 91%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.2

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts6.3

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.9

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call5.5

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.