MSFTMicrosoft Corp
MSFT Options Overview
IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
MSFT Gamma Walls
MSFT Hedge Radar
Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where MSFT sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.
Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.95) — near-dated vol is priced 28% below far-dated, and implied vol sits in the 1th percentile of its own past year, measured against this name's own earnings history (8 prints). Fragility reads resilient (1.07): it is trading 10% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is contracting.
Value
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 18.7% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.13x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 2% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.72x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 24.6% — normal range
Effective IV 33.4% (ATM 24.6% + spread 4.4% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 8.17% (spread 4.40% + slippage 3.77%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 80.33 (vega 35.345 / spread 4.40%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -2% (neutral) — Raw: -2%
|OI skew| 30.0% — call-heavy
Vol skew +36.8%, OI skew +30.0% — aligned
0-DTE 24%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -7%, ATM: -1%, OTM: -3% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 39% — bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 9.8% — normal turnover
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -0.3% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 64% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 18% — mixed
Aggressive execution 37% — patient
Conviction -2 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 4.4% — acceptable
OI 3,950,039 — deep
Volume 388,272/day — active
$0.22 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 3% — much tighter than sector
Depth 189.4 contracts (bid:91.4 ask:98.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 3.77% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -27.9% — contango
IV percentile 19% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -5.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 100.61 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: FOMC in 2d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -2% @ 51% consistency — unclear
Score 48 (ITM 20% + inst 18%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 14, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.