Informed Accumulation · Case Studies

The signal, right next to the move.

Each case pairs the quiet, one-sided OTM-put accumulation IAS detected with the market move it front-ran — on an annotated price chart rebased to 100 on the day we flagged it. The grey line is the run-up; the colored line is what happened next.

Fourteen of these sixteen resolved down and two ripped up. That is the proof: IAS reads magnitude — that something moves — never which way.

Resolved down

14 cases
FUTU2021-02-10
BIG MOVE
100Signal fired−37%
big_move_prob 0.8760-day idiosyncratic −35%

🐜 mostly aggregated

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GME2021-01-27
ALERT STRONG
100Signal fired−88%
IAS 29.120-day idiosyncratic −93%

🐜 mostly aggregated

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KODK2020-08-04
BIG MOVE
100Signal fired−62%
big_move_prob 1.020-day idiosyncratic −65% (after a +130% spike)

🐜 pure aggregation

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MAXN2024-06-07
ALERT
100Signal fired−95%
big_move_prob 1.060-day idiosyncratic −98%

🐜 pure aggregation · ⚠ micro-cap

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MREO2025-12-11
ALERT STRONG
100Signal fired−87%
IAS 28.620-day idiosyncratic −87%

🐜 pure aggregation · ⚠ micro-cap

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NVAX2019-01-30
WATCH
100Signal fired−79%
IAS 25.660-day idiosyncratic −88%

🐜 mostly aggregated · ⚠ micro-cap

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MCRB2016-07-20
WATCH
100Signal fired−73%
IAS 27.020-day idiosyncratic −73%

🐜 pure aggregation

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PRAX2023-02-23
WATCH
100Signal fired−77%
big_move_prob 0.7120-day idiosyncratic −73%

🐜 mostly aggregated · ⚠ micro-cap

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DCTH2013-05-02
WATCH
100Signal fired−53%
big_move_prob 0.7720-day idiosyncratic −53%

🐜 pure aggregation · ⚠ micro-cap

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FIG2025-08-19
BIG MOVE
100Signal fired−48%
big_move_prob 0.8760-day idiosyncratic −43%

🐜 mostly aggregated

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CYTK2024-01-11
BIG MOVE
100Signal fired−25%
big_move_prob 0.8760-day idiosyncratic −33%

🐋 block-led

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FUTU2026-05-21
WATCH
100Signal fired−27%
IAS 25.320-day idiosyncratic −28%

🐜 mostly aggregated

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TIGR2026-05-21
WATCH
100Signal fired−25%
IAS 25.720-day idiosyncratic −26%

🐜 pure aggregation, ZERO block prints

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TIGR2023-09-07
WATCH
100Signal fired−18%
IAS 25.160-day idiosyncratic −17%

🐜 pure aggregation

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Resolved up

2 cases

The same accumulation signature, but the binary event broke the other way. These are load-bearing: the model never called direction — it called that a large move was coming, and it was right about the magnitude.

These are historical, out-of-sample detections shown for illustration. Informed Accumulation is a research and data signal, not investment advice, and it does not predict the direction of any single name. Outcomes shown are forward idiosyncratic (beta-stripped vs SPY) moves over mature windows; the chart draws the raw rebased price path, which will differ. Options involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Informed Accumulation Case Studies — The Signal Next to the Move | Ainvest Options Pilot