See the accumulation the whale scanners can’t.
Ahead of a binary event — earnings, an FDA verdict, a financing — informed money quietly builds thousands of small, cheap, one-sided out-of-the-money put positions. Any one is invisible. In aggregate they’re a tell. IAS measures that build against a name’s own quiet baseline and surfaces it days before the catalyst.
Direction not predicted — this flags a possible large move (magnitude), not which way price goes.
Whale scanners see one block. IAS sees the swarm.
The signature that matters is the shape of the flow, not the size of the biggest print.
What a whale scanner shows you
One multi-million-dollar block hitting the tape. It’s loud, it’s late, and it’s often a hedge against a position you can’t see. By the time a block that size prints, the positioning is already public.
What IAS reads instead
The pure-aggregation signature: thousands of small OTM puts, one-sided, laddered across strikes and expiries, zero block-size prints, median ticket around $200. Measured against the name’s own quiet baseline and confirmed by the next morning’s open interest — surfacing days before the catalyst.
Not a two-way market-making footprint — a directional put build spread across strikes and expiries, all leaning the same way.
IAS scores the build against the name's own recent, quiet put-flow baseline — so the same absolute volume means more on a normally-sleepy ticker.
Whether the build actually opened new positions is confirmed by the next morning's change in open interest — pending until the data agrees.
Real detections
Forward idiosyncratic move, beta-stripped vs SPY. Out-of-sample 2012–2026 — a curated slice of the notable detections, not the full flag history. Both down and up outcomes, with the full context shown.
Sixteen realized detections, ordered for impact. Most repriced sharply lower — but two, COGT and KPTI (shown in green), ripped higher. That is the point: IAS reads magnitude, not direction.
The meme-squeeze unwind after broker buy-restrictions.
Dilution: notes + equity raise + reverse split.
Pivotal Phase-3 RSV vaccine missed its primary endpoint.
Setrusumab Phase-3 fracture-endpoint miss.
SEC probe and a pulled $765M government loan.
Positive selinexor Phase-2b enabling an accelerated NDA.
Positive PEAK Phase-3 in 2L GIST — first in 20+ years.
Lead microbiome candidate failed Phase-2.
Phase-2/3 epilepsy readout miss.
FDA advisory panel voted 16-0 against the drug.
First post-IPO print: decelerating guidance + lockup.
Flagged at the Feb-2021 meme-froth peak; repriced violently.
Novartis walked away from acquisition talks.
A second FUTU build five years later, same signature.
61,000 OTM-put contracts, no single block.
Slower — played out over the quarter.
Direction is not promised. Fourteen of these sixteen leaned down; two — COGT and KPTI — ripped higher. IAS is not a call that a name goes down; it is a call that something moves. Read it as long volatility, not long puts.
What the labels mean
Precision = share of past flags that saw a ≥15% idiosyncratic move within 20 sessions, measured out-of-sample 2012–2026. Base rate for this already-volatile eligible universe = 36.6%.
| Tier | Gate | Precision | Lift vs base | What to do |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATCH "On the radar." | IAS ≥ 24 | ~53% | 1.4× | Watchlist it and check the catalyst calendar — not a standalone trigger. |
| ALERT "Positioning is happening." | IAS ≥ 27.5 | ~72% | 2.0× | Investigate the catalyst (earnings / FDA / financing); scope a defined-risk structure. |
| ALERT STRONG "High-conviction." | IAS ≥ 30 | ~75% | 2.1× | Treat as a genuine setup; confirm opening status; structure around the event window. |
| BIG MOVE The model’s sharpest call — the feed is ranked by this. | magnitude model | ~95% | 2.6× | Prioritize these. big_move_prob is the validated edge. |
At ALERT STRONG, historically 71% of IAS ≥ 30 episodes preceded a ≥15% idiosyncratic move — roughly 7× the rate across all stocks.
Two numbers, and they answer different questions. IAS = “how unusual is this flow.” big_move_prob = “how likely is a large move.” Rank by the second — the feed leads with big_move_prob because that is the validated edge.
How to use it
Four rules that keep the signal honest and the risk defined.
The side an accumulation resolves toward can't be predicted per event. Favor defined-risk, both-sided structures over naked puts — the historical behavior looks like long volatility.
Sort the feed by big_move_prob, the magnitude model — not by raw IAS. A high IAS paired with a low magnitude estimate is unusual but not notable for movement.
opening_status reads 'pending' until the next morning's open-interest change agrees, then flips to 'confirmed'. Don't assert a position opened before the data confirms it.
The historically tradable edge sits around $5–20 small caps. Below $5, a ⚠ micro-cap flag means quotes and EOD data are sparse — treat every reading as low-confidence.
The honest boundary
Live for AIme Ultra · 2-month delayed for all other tiers
AIme Ultra reads today's accumulation live (0-day). Every other tier — Premium, Pro, Free, and anonymous — sees the same real feed on a 60-day (2-month) delay, not locked out.
| Tier | Informed Accumulation access |
|---|---|
| AIme Ultra | Full — live, 0-day |
| AIme Premium | Delayed 2 months (60-day) |
| Option Pilot Pro | Delayed 2 months (60-day) |
| Free account | Delayed 2 months (60-day) |
| Anonymous | Delayed 2 months (60-day) |
Read today’s accumulation before the catalyst
AIme Ultra unlocks Informed Accumulation in full — every ALERT and BIG MOVE the day the flow lands, ranked by magnitude, with the live forward scorecard.
Informed Accumulation is a research and data signal, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It describes unusual opening accumulation on the public options tape and does not predict the direction of any single name. AInvest Options Pilot is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Options involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Precision, lift, and idiosyncratic-move figures reflect historical out-of-sample study and are not indicative of future results. Read the OCC’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before trading.