The biggest premium-seller print in our six-month UOA dataset wasn't on a parabolic top — it was a floor call after a violent post-earnings drop.
On December 10, 2025, Oracle reported Q2 FY26 earnings: a record $523B in remaining performance obligations (driven by AI infrastructure commitments) but a $50B+ full-year capex guide that scared the bid out of the stock. ORCL gapped down 11% the next session. By December 17, with ORCL stuck around $178 and the implied vol on its short-dated options elevated, two institutional desks took the other side: they sold puts deep in the money for the December 19 expiration — just two trading days out.
Combined premium collected: $197 million. By Friday's close ORCL was still above both strikes; the puts decayed from $41 / $30 of intrinsic + time to roughly $28 / $16 of intrinsic only. The sellers kept $77 million in two trading sessions.
First published: Daily Institutional Flow Digest, December 17, 2025 · ORCL flow on 2025-12-17.
The two prints
| Field | Print 1 (220P) | Print 2 (210P) |
|---|---|---|
| Date | 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-17 |
| Side | SELL | SELL |
| Type | PUT | PUT |
| Strike | 220 (deep ITM) | 210 (ITM) |
| Expiration | 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-19 |
| Premium collected | $109M | $88M |
| Entry option price | $41.10 | $30.55 |
| ORCL spot at trade | $178.46 | $178.46 |
| Position confidence | VERY_HIGH | MEDIUM |
| Outcome | expired (~$27.50) | expired (~$16.25) |
| P&L | +$36.1M | +$41.2M |
Both puts were deep in the money at entry — a 220-strike put with the stock at $178 has $42 of intrinsic alone. The thesis wasn't "ORCL won't drop"; it was "ORCL won't drop another 5% in 48 hours, and the implied vol baked into these short-dated puts is too rich to ignore." Two desks, two strikes, same expiration, same conviction.
What ORCL did
Daily closes Dec 17 → Dec 19:
| Date | ORCL close | Move from 12/17 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 (entry) | $178.46 | — |
| 2025-12-18 | ~$181 | +1.4% |
| 2025-12-19 (expiration) | $181.45 | +1.7% |
ORCL ticked higher into expiration. Both puts expired with intrinsic value below entry — a partial win for the seller (they don't keep 100% of the credit because the puts were ITM at entry, but the time value and the small positive drift in the underlying both flowed back to them).
What the puts did
| Date | 220P close | 210P close |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 (entry) | $41.10 | $30.55 |
| 2025-12-18 | ~$38 | ~$28 |
| 2025-12-19 (expiration) | ~$27.50 | ~$16.25 |
Each put dropped about $13 over two sessions on a combination of underlying drift + accelerated theta + IV crush. For the 220P seller of ~26,500 contracts that's ~$36M; for the 210P seller of ~28,800 contracts that's ~$41M.
Why ORCL stabilized
The catalyst that mattered already happened — Oracle's December 10 earnings beat. The 11% post-earnings drop reflected genuine concern about $50B+ of capex commitments, but by December 17 the sell-side was already publishing recovery notes pointing to:
- $523B RPO as a sign that AI infrastructure demand is locked in for years.
- Margin path — the cloud-infrastructure ramp has front-loaded depreciation, but unit economics are improving.
- Fed cut on December 10 — the same week as earnings, the Fed delivered a 25 bp cut with hawkish dissent. Risk assets that had bled on the cut + capex one-two punch were ready to stabilize.
By the time the put-seller desks priced their December 19 trade, the negative cycle was tired and the implied vol was still elevated from the earnings move. Selling puts deep ITM at that vol level was textbook premium-seller alpha.
Why this trade is a "premium seller calling the bottom" example
The standard premium-seller-flashback shape is selling calls into a parabolic top (we wrote about AVGO December 2025 and GLD February 2026 for that pattern). The ORCL print is the mirror: selling puts after a violent drop — when retail panic is overpaying for protection, institutions collect that premium.
Both shapes exploit the same observation: implied vol is elevated, the underlying is at a structural extreme, and the path of least resistance over the short hold window is mean reversion. The desk doesn't need ORCL to rip; they need it to stop falling.
What this trade did NOT mean
The institutions selling the 220P and 210P didn't have non-public information about Oracle's AI roadmap. They had a vol-and-positioning thesis (premium too rich, retail too short post-earnings) sized to a 2-day expiration. They were right.
Most UOA prints don't print like this — read the methodology piece for the honest aggregate stats.
See the live tape
Upgrade to AIme Premium → to see institutional premium-seller flow into post-earnings vol spikes the morning it prints — often the leading indicator for a near-term reversal.
Read more
Other flashback case studies — INTC · ARM · NVDA · NFLX · AMZN · AMD · AVGO short calls · GLD short calls · QQQ March put ladder.
See This Analysis Live — Free
Sign up free to access the full options screener with 5-pillar scores for 5,000+ stocks, daily signals, strategy recommendations, and radar charts. No credit card required.
Free account includes: screener · 5-pillar scores · daily signals · strategy picks · radar charts
Or just get the weekly recap
Sundays. What moved this week, what catalysts and earnings drive next week, and the 5-pillar setups that stand out. No account needed.
Free. One email per week. Unsubscribe with one click.