Options/ACGL

ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd

Options Analysis Report•FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

Market Cap $33.7B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-31$98.84

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +8.2%YTD +5.3%7D -2.3%

Options Vol

201

30D

Implied Move

±5.5%

IV Rank

11%

ACGL Options Overview

IV is low. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn

Loading score history...

ACGL Gamma Walls

Loading gamma walls...

Value

Is IV priced right?

7.0

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 12.0% — cheap vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.52x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 17% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.82x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 22.0% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 84.5% (ATM 22.0% + spread 31.2% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 41.98% (spread 31.23% + slippage 10.75%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 2.94 (vega 9.181 / spread 31.23%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

3.5

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -67%, Raw: -62%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -67% (strong bearish) — Raw: -62%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 4.0% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +61.2%, OI skew -4.0% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -12%, ATM: -100%, OTM: -47% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 14% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.7

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.8x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 1.8% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +5.3% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 43% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 26% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -67 (bearish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 31.2% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 11,368 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 201/day — thin

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$1.56 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 18% — much tighter than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 65.8 contracts (bid:40.0 ask:25.8) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 10.75% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.9

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -18.4% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 12% — buyer opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.5pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 216.54 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -67% @ 84% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.4

bullishIV cheap, bearish flow

Long Puts6.4

bearishIV cheap, bearish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.0

bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow

Covered Call5.0

bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on ACGL

ACGL gamma walls ACGL max pain ACGL IV rank ACGL options flow