What the Options Market Is Pricing Into the Week Ahead
Published every Friday after the close, live through the week: the move options price into every US stock reporting that week (Mon–Fri) — versus how much each has actually moved on its past prints, and what it does when it reports — plus the SPY/QQQ/IWM expected ranges, the walls that box them in, and the week’s US macro.
The Index Read · What Options Price for the Week
This week’s US macro: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average. Here’s the weekly move options are pricing across the majors — and the walls that box it in.
● Put wall — support. Heavy put positioning tends to act as a floor.
● Hedge wall — the pivot. Above it moves dampen (range-bound); below it they accelerate.
● Call wall — resistance. Heavy call positioning tends to cap the upside. More on call, put and hedge walls.
Walls move every trading day; these are Friday’s close (Oct 16). OptionPilot recomputes them each morning before the open.
The Macro Calendar · US Releases This Week
The scheduled US data inside this week’s expiry — the events the index ranges above already have to cover.
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 20 | Building Permits (Sep) | High |
| Tue Oct 20 | Housing Starts (Sep) | High |
| Thu Oct 22 | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct/17) | High |
| Thu Oct 22 | Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/10) | High |
| Thu Oct 22 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/17) | High |
The Earnings Read · Every US Name Reporting This Week (Mon–Fri)
54 US companies report the week of Oct 19. The widest implied move is RNG at ±13.3%; the biggest name reporting is META at ±5.6%. Against their own earnings history, 29 are priced rich and 11 have room to run. 2 of 54 have reported so far this week — the rest are still ahead.
What the options market priced into each report — versus how much the stock has actually moved on its past prints. Sorted by market cap within each day.
| Stock & report | Mkt cap | Options implied | Actual move avg · max | What happened | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 19 | |||||
| SMMTpre-mkt | $12B | ±11.3% | ±9.8% max 15% | +6.4% | 1.2× RICH |
| AGNCpost-mkt | $10B | ±5.0% | ±2.3% max 4% | upcoming | 2.2× RICH |
| CLFpre-mkt | $7B | ±12.2% | ±13.5% max 22% | +16.3% | FAIRLY PRICED |
| Tue Oct 20 | |||||
| GEpre-mkt | $326B | ±6.2% | ±5.7% max 9% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| NFLXpost-mkt | $294B | ±9.5% | ±6.6% max 11% | upcoming | 1.4× RICH |
| RTXpre-mkt | $261B | ±5.1% | ±5.0% max 10% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| ISRGpost-mkt | $151B | ±7.9% | ±5.4% max 14% | upcoming | 1.5× RICH |
| COFpost-mkt | $124B | ±5.5% | ±3.8% max 8% | upcoming | 1.4× RICH |
| MMMpre-mkt | $85B | ±6.1% | ±5.6% max 8% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| GMpre-mkt | $74B | ±6.3% | ±9.1% max 15% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| UALpre-mkt | $31B | ±7.1% | ±5.1% max 12% | upcoming | 1.4× RICH |
| HALpre-mkt | $28B | ±5.7% | ±5.1% max 12% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| NLYpost-mkt | $14B | ±3.6% | ±1.5% max 4% | upcoming | 2.4× RICH |
| Wed Oct 21 | |||||
| METApost-mkt | $1.8T | ±5.6% | ±7.1% max 11% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| TSLApost-mkt | $1.4T | ±7.4% | ±7.3% max 22% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| LRCXpost-mkt | $330B | ±8.2% | ±5.2% max 7% | upcoming | 1.6× RICH |
| PMpre-mkt | $320B | ±5.0% | ±6.1% max 11% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| SAPpost-mkt | $261B | ±7.2% | ±5.3% max 15% | upcoming | 1.4× RICH |
| TMOpre-mkt | $255B | ±6.2% | ±4.1% max 9% | upcoming | 1.5× RICH |
| TXNpost-mkt | $252B | ±8.4% | ±7.8% max 13% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| IBMpost-mkt | $219B | ±7.7% | ±6.7% max 13% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| ABTpre-mkt | $181B | ±5.5% | ±5.1% max 10% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| NEEpre-mkt | $166B | ±4.0% | ±3.3% max 6% | upcoming | 1.2× RICH |
| DHRpre-mkt | $161B | ±6.9% | ±5.4% max 10% | upcoming | 1.3× RICH |
| Tpre-mkt | $161B | ±5.0% | ±3.6% max 6% | upcoming | 1.4× RICH |
| CMEpre-mkt | $106B | ±3.8% | ±1.3% max 3% | upcoming | OUTSIZED PREMIUM |
| CSXpost-mkt | $90B | ±4.8% | ±2.7% max 7% | upcoming | 1.8× RICH |
| KMIpre-mkt | $76B | ±3.4% | ±2.2% max 5% | upcoming | 1.5× RICH |
| URIpost-mkt | $64B | ±8.1% | ±7.2% max 13% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| LVSpost-mkt | $25B | ±6.6% | ±8.5% max 14% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| LUVpost-mkt | $19B | ±6.6% | ±7.9% max 19% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| QSpre-mkt | $2B | ±11.7% | ±11.1% max 26% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| Thu Oct 22 | |||||
| PGpre-mkt | $370B | ±3.7% | ±2.0% max 4% | upcoming | 1.9× RICH |
| UNPpre-mkt | $172B | ±4.3% | ±3.4% max 5% | upcoming | 1.3× RICH |
| VLOpre-mkt | $128B | ±6.5% | ±3.0% max 7% | upcoming | 2.2× RICH |
| LMTpre-mkt | $127B | ±4.9% | ±5.7% max 11% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| NEMpost-mkt | $125B | ±5.6% | ±6.8% max 15% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| WDCpost-mkt | $124B | ±10.7% | ±7.7% max 10% | upcoming | 1.4× RICH |
| BXpre-mkt | $123B | ±6.3% | ±4.8% max 8% | upcoming | 1.3× RICH |
| SPOTpre-mkt | $109B | ±9.5% | ±9.9% max 15% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| CMCSApre-mkt | $78B | ±6.7% | ±4.6% max 11% | upcoming | 1.5× RICH |
| HONpre-mkt | $67B | ±5.1% | ±5.7% max 7% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| BEpost-mkt | $65B | ±12.1% | ±10.5% max 23% | upcoming | 1.2× RICH |
| NDAQpre-mkt | $53B | ±4.6% | ±2.4% max 6% | upcoming | 1.9× RICH |
| NOKpre-mkt | $49B | ±10.3% | ±7.8% max 11% | upcoming | 1.3× RICH |
| PCGpost-mkt | $35B | ±5.2% | ±2.0% max 4% | upcoming | OUTSIZED PREMIUM |
| PHMpre-mkt | $22B | ±5.4% | ±6.3% max 12% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| DOWpre-mkt | $22B | ±6.3% | ±7.3% max 18% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| TSCOpre-mkt | $17B | ±8.5% | ±4.2% max 8% | upcoming | 2.0× RICH |
| DECKpost-mkt | $12B | ±10.6% | ±16.2% max 21% | upcoming | CAN RUN MORE |
| AALpre-mkt | $8B | ±7.0% | ±6.5% max 10% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| RNGpost-mkt | $6B | ±13.3% | ±13.8% max 34% | upcoming | FAIRLY PRICED |
| Fri Oct 23 | |||||
| AXPpre-mkt | $212B | ±4.8% | ±3.3% max 7% | upcoming | 1.5× RICH |
| SLBpre-mkt | $73B | ±5.5% | ±3.2% max 6% | upcoming | 1.7× RICH |
Implied move = live ATM straddle for the expiry covering the report. Actual move = the stock’s own 1-day earnings reaction over its last reported quarters — avg is typical, max the biggest. “What happened” = the realized move this week. “pre/post-mkt” = reports before the open / after the close. “Can run more” = options price less than history; “rich” = more; “outsized premium” = far above (usually a special catalyst).
Past weeks
Implied moves, explained
Term pages: implied move · straddle · IV crush · event risk
Reading it the other way round: implied volatility term structure ranks the whole optionable universe by which stretch of the calendar the premium sits in, without starting from a report date.
What is an implied move?
The implied move is how much the options market expects a stock to move on its earnings report, in percent. It comes from the price of the at-the-money straddle (the call plus the put at the strike nearest the stock price) for the expiry that covers the report: pay that premium and you break even only if the stock moves at least that far in either direction. It is a price, not a prediction — it is what the move currently costs.
How is the expected move calculated on this page?
For every US company reporting that week we take the at-the-money straddle on the first expiry after the report date, divide its total premium by the stock price, and express it as a plus-or-minus percentage. Prices are anchored to the prior Friday’s close. Because straddles reprice continuously, the number shifts intraday as implied volatility moves.
What does it mean when the implied move is higher than the historical move?
It means options are pricing a bigger reaction than the stock has typically delivered. We label that “rich” at 1.15x or more and “outsized premium” at 2.5x or more — the latter usually signals a specific catalyst beyond the print. The reverse, where options price less than history, is labelled “can run more.” Neither is a trade signal on its own: a rich implied move is expensive to buy but the stock can still exceed it.
Where does the historical earnings move come from?
It is the stock’s own realised one-day reaction to each of its last reported quarters, measured close-to-close across the report. We show the average and the largest of those moves, so a name that usually moves 4% but once gapped 22% is visible as both.
When is the calendar updated?
The edition for the week ahead publishes every Friday after the close. Through the following week it stays live, and each name’s realised move is backfilled into the table once it has reported, so you can compare what options priced against what actually happened.
Is it free?
Yes. The implied move calendar, the SPY/QQQ/IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls on this page are free and need no account.
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Educational, not investment advice. Options involve risk. Implied moves reflect live at-the-money straddle prices and can shift intraday; historical moves are averages of past reported quarters and are not a forecast.