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BTCGrayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Options Analysis Report•COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
AUM $4.8B|ARCX
● 2026-08-31$34.30
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -30.1%YTD -13.7%7D -1.5%
1,262
30D
±9.5%
5%

BTC Options Overview

bullish flow with unusual activity. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.4VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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BTC Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.7
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 64.7% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.05x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 65% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.79x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 40.7% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 73.8% (ATM 40.7% + spread 16.5% + bias) — fair

<3.0%

Total drag 23.58% (spread 16.54% + slippage 7.04%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 5.99 (vega 9.915 / spread 16.54%) — acceptable

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.5
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -27%, Raw: -18%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -27% (bearish) — Raw: -18%

≥15%

|OI skew| 56.8% — call-heavy

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +31.9%, OI skew +56.8% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -79%, ATM: +2%, OTM: -5% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 34% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.3
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.9x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 4.1% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +7.1% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 70% — active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 9% — mostly retail

≥60%

Aggressive execution 35% — patient

≥30

Conviction -27 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.9
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 16.5% — wide

≥10,000

OI 30,970 — adequate

≥500

Volume 1,262/day — adequate

≤$0.50

$0.83 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 78% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 506.20000000000005 contracts (bid:221.1 ask:285.1) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 7.04% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.5
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -20.8% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 65% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -6.3pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 751.14 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -27% @ 64% consistency — moderate (bearish)

≥40 composite score

Score 39 (ITM 20% + inst 9%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.9
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.5
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.6
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.3
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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