Options/CG

CGThe Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock

Options Analysis Report•INVESTMENT ADVICE

Market Cap $17.5B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-28$49.24

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y -23.6%YTD -19.1%7D -0.3%

Options Vol

13,356

30D

Implied Move

±11.0%

IV Rank

13%

CG Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

Loading score history...

CG Gamma Walls

Loading gamma walls...

CG Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where CG sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.38) — downside puts carry 1.4 IV points more than at-the-money, and implied vol sits in the 14th percentile of its own past year, measured against this name's own rolling 17-trading-day realized moves (487 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (4.17): it is trading 3% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.38/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

4.17/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.1

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 62.7% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.94x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 79% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.92x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 41.0% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 59.3% (ATM 41.0% + spread 9.1% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 13.96% (spread 9.13% + slippage 4.83%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 5.25 (vega 4.791 / spread 9.13%) — acceptable

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

3.3

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -92%, Raw: -87%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -92% (strong bearish) — Raw: -87%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 17.6% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +93.9%, OI skew +17.6% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -83%, ATM: -8%, OTM: -88% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 2% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.4

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.4x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 6.1% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -38.6% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 73% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 87% — heavy institutional

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 52% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -92 (bearish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.4

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 9.1% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 219,655 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 13,356/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.46 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 84% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 295.7 contracts (bid:115.8 ask:179.9) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 4.83% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.8

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -7.9% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 63% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -1.8pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 113.54 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -92% @ 96% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 117 (ITM 20% + inst 87%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.1

bullishIV cheap, bearish flow

Long Puts6.3

bearishIV cheap, bearish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.4

bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow

Covered Call5.6

bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.