Options/DBC

DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund

Options Analysis Report•COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS

AUM $1.8B|ARCX

● 2026-08-31$30.79

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +36.4%YTD +37.5%7D -0.5%

Options Vol

216

30D

Implied Move

±10.7%

IV Rank

16%

DBC Options Overview

Mixed signals. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

Loading score history...

DBC Gamma Walls

Loading gamma walls...

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.0

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks3/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 36.5% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.23x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 57% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.36x — backwardation

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 26.2% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 64.3% (ATM 26.2% + spread 19.1% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 35.09% (spread 19.05% + slippage 16.04%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 2.36 (vega 4.501 / spread 19.05%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

3.2

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -94%, Raw: -92%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -94% (strong bearish) — Raw: -92%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 45.3% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +94.4%, OI skew +45.3% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -82%, ATM: -27%, OTM: -96% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 2% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.5

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.5x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 1.2% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +0.8% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 35% — below sector avg

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 42% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -94 (bearish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.7

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 19.1% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 17,661 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 216/day — thin

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.95 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 67% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 210.8 contracts (bid:87.7 ask:123.1) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 16.04% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.5

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +36.3% — backwardation

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 36% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 14.6pts — event priced

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 463.98 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -94% @ 97% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls4.7

bullishIV fair, bearish flow

Long Puts6.0

bearishIV fair, bearish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.0

bullishIV fair, bearish flow

Covered Call5.3

bearishIV fair, bearish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on DBC

DBC gamma walls DBC max pain DBC IV rank DBC options flow