Options/EWJ

EWJiShares MSCI Japan ETF

Options Analysis Report

AUM $22.6B|ARCX

● 2026-08-31$95.87

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +22.7%YTD +17.9%7D +1.1%

Options Vol

5,324

30D

Implied Move

±5.9%

IV Rank

22%

EWJ Options Overview

IV is low with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn

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EWJ Gamma Walls

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EWJ Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where EWJ sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the fair band (4.38) — the move being priced is 1.75x this name's own median 21-trading-day move, and downside puts carry 2.2 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 21-trading-day realized moves (483 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (5.61): it is trading 4% below its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

4.38/ 10fair

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

5.61/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

7.2

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 26.4% — cheap vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.29x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 44% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.06x — backwardation

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 21.8% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 77.1% (ATM 21.8% + spread 27.7% + bias) — fair

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 33.62% (spread 27.67% + slippage 5.95%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 3.48 (vega 9.625 / spread 27.67%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.7

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: -1%, Raw: -4%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -1% (neutral) — Raw: -4%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 26.9% — put-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -1.5%, OI skew -26.9% — weak (same direction)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +1%, ATM: -1%, OTM: -22% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 88% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.3

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.8x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 4.3% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +10.3% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 66% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 80% — heavy institutional

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 14% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -1 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.4

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 27.7% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 122,935 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 5,324/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$1.38 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

1 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 58% — neutral vs sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 152.3 contracts (bid:84.5 ask:67.8) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 5.95% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.8

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +5.9% — backwardation

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 26% — buyer opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 2.1pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 169.75 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -1% @ 51% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 110 (ITM 20% + inst 80%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.7

bullishIV cheap, mixed flow

Long Puts5.9

bearishIV cheap, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.2

bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow

Covered Call4.4

bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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