Options/FLY

FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock

Options Analysis Report•GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS

Market Cap $3.6B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-28$21.26

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y -53.1%YTD -10.5%7D -13.0%

Options Vol

5,362

30D

Implied Move

±24.3%

IV Rank

FLY Options Overview

IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

Loading score history...

FLY Gamma Walls

Loading gamma walls...

Value

Is IV priced right?

4.1

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks2/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 93.4% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.25x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 98% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.87x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 89.7% — crisis-level IV

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 113.2% (ATM 89.7% + spread 11.8% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 18.65% (spread 11.76% + slippage 6.89%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 2.09 (vega 2.462 / spread 11.76%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.2

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +52%, Raw: +34%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +52% (strong bullish) — Raw: +34%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 45.6% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -40.9%, OI skew +45.6% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 38%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +67%, ATM: +75%, OTM: -4% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 91% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.3

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.4x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.1% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -16.1% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 68% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 12% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 27% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +52 (bullish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.7

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 11.8% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 174,250 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 5,362/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.59 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 99% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 257.6 contracts (bid:140.7 ask:116.9) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.89% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.9

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -12.8% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 93% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -8.2pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 63.95 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +52% @ 76% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 42 (ITM 20% + inst 12%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.4

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Long Puts4.5

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.9

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Covered Call5.0

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.